A COMPUTER SIMULATION BASED ON A MARKOV CHAIN MODEL FOR THE DYNAMICS AND TRANSMISSION OF MALARIA

Description

This document deals with the simulation of the dynamics and transmission of malaria. First, we examine how a host (person) is infected through a malaria vector (mosquito) bite. Next, we describe the different behaviors and interactions between hosts and malaria vectors. The populations involved in our study (hosts and malaria vectors) are divided into compartments, which represent the different stages of the disease as given in the SEIR model of Ross-MacDonald. From this basic study, a Markov chain model is then developed. Then the model is implemented as a computerized simulation program called «Sipa» (Simulation of malaria). The results obtained from simulation, which is a stochastic model, are analysed, compared and validated against a deterministic version.